Is bitcoin gold or the Nasdaq? What regime-based correlations say

The argument "is bitcoin a safe haven or a risk asset" is settled by data: BTC's correlations are unstable and regime-dependent. Yearly averages hide the most interesting part.

Three correlation regimes

• Risk-on/risk-off driven by rates. When the Fed runs the market (tightening/easing cycles), BTC moves with the Nasdaq: same fuel - liquidity. In these periods the correlation with tech is high and stable.
• A crisis of trust in the system. Banking stress, debt ceiling standoffs, sanction stories - the rare windows when BTC remembers the "digital gold" narrative and diverges from equities.
• Crypto-endogenous shocks. Exchange and protocol collapses hit BTC regardless of macro: correlations with tradfi are meaningless on those days.

In practice

The question "what is bitcoin's correlation" has no answer without specifying the regime. It is more useful to keep the current regime's trigger in mind: if the market lives on rates - watch tech and yields; if on banking stress - BTC can rise against equities; if on a crypto scandal - forget macro. Our macro radar (F&G, funding, dominance, stable flows) - in the markets section.