$JIMOTHY Update: +149% after the verdict, but the LP bomb is still ticking

$JIMOTHY The Raccoon has outperformed the top third of the verdict over the past three days: the price has risen by +149% since our first analysis (when we gave it a 4/10), trading volume is normal (3.14M per day with liquidity of 465k), and the number of holders has increased from 70k to 78k+. On the chart, it looks like a typical meme coin pump, but the underlying structure remains the same-and that’s the problem.

What hasn’t changed: The LP bomb is ready

The key indicator was the figure: 38% of LP is locked, meaning 62% can be withdrawn. Over 360 hours, this percentage hasn’t budged. This is no small risk-according to our database, unlocked LP (<50%) for a graduated token historically leads to a dump in 80%+ of cases. Data from Solana memes is more specific: a gradient with a bonding curve (as happened with Jimothy) even correlates with a dump in our engine’s statistics (+0.34 to the risk of rug pulls, n=52).

The deployer holds 0% of the supply, but that doesn’t help-the danger lies in the fact that liquidity on the DEX isn’t contractually locked. The wallet that created the pool can withdraw as much as 464k USD at a time.

Distribution is good, but growth is lacking without social media

On the positive side: the top 10 hold 12%, and the top 1 holds 1.53%. This is a healthy distribution. Minting has been revoked, the freeze has been revoked, and the supply is locked. On paper, it’s a textbook-perfect launch, with a launch quality score of 45/100 (one bottleneck: the LP isn’t locked).

But here’s what’s strange: there’s almost no activity for the token on social media. The data shows a single mention from @CryptoCurrency (0 followers, but with a track record of 1 call + 100% pumps over 7 days). A +149% increase without widespread social media activity-this could be insider trading or a quiet buy-in by a large wallet. This pattern alone isn’t a scam, but it’s not a green flag either.

Why the verdict is still low

Our statistics on tokens with unlocked LP and bonding curve graduates show a median of -88% per week (zone 7-8 on our track). The UTS score of 35/100 confirms this: for tokens that have graduated from the bonding curve with LP < 90%, the price drops in 70-80% of cases, even if the rest of the structure is clean.

+149% is a pump based on live volume, but it doesn’t eliminate the main risk. Jimothy may continue to grow (volume is healthy, distribution is spread out), but at any moment, there could be a 62% LP withdrawal, a sell-off at an inflated FDV (8M USD with 465k in liquidity), and a 60-80% drop.

Update Verdict

Rating revised from 4/10 to 5/10. The growth has proven valid, the quality of the launch has been confirmed (graduate, top 10 < 30%, clean deployer), but the LP risk remains unchanged. This isn’t a scam (no honeypot, sales are active), but there’s a high risk of a dump. Betting on this memecoin means betting that the deployer and pool administrators won’t drain the liquidity. History shows that in 70% of such cases, they do drain it.