Bitcoin's on-chain metrics: three indicators that survive cycles

Bitcoin's blockchain is public bookkeeping: you can see when every coin moved and at what price. On-chain analytics is built on this. Of the dozens of metrics, three pass the test of cycles.

The working three

• Realized price - the average price of every coin's last move: the market's "cost basis". Price below realized means the market is at an aggregate loss; historically these are capitulation and accumulation zones.
• MVRV - the ratio of market cap to realized value. The extremes have worked in both directions: high values are the overheating and distribution zone, below one - the zone of historical bottoms.
• Long-term holder (LTH) behavior. Coins older than ~155 days belong to "strong hands". When LTHs start spending into a rally - distribution toward a peak is underway; when their share grows on the way down - accumulation.

Limits of the method

On-chain sees coins but not derivatives and not ETF flows: ever more price discovery happens off-chain, and the old metric thresholds drift from cycle to cycle. On-chain is a compass for zones (historically expensive/cheap), not a timer for reversals. Use it together with flows and macro - see the markets section.