Checking a caller: five questions to ask before trusting a «track record»

Every caller sells their own "track record." Verifying it takes half an hour of work that saves your deposit.

Five audit questions

• 1. Completeness of history. Deleted posts are the main trick: winrate grows by erasing failures. Channel archiving services expose cleanups in a minute.
• 2. Reference point. The "X from the call" is counted from which price? A classic: post at the moment of a pump, "fixation" at the peak an hour later. Recalculate three to five calls using the chart from the post time to a realistic exit.
• 3. Survivability of calls. Not "did it do X at the peak," but "what's the price a week later." For junk calls, the median after 7 days is minus tens of percent: a subscriber without a second-by-second reaction is guaranteed to be in the red.
• 4. The caller's own on-chain trail. Did wallets linked to the channel (sometimes public, sometimes traceable) buy before the post? Sell into the wave? That is the real track record.
• 5. Channel economics. If there's a price list for posts (found via "collaborations"), then part of the "gems" are paid, and you need to figure out which ones.

Spoiler for the results: after an honest recalculation, the winrate of most channels converges to a coin flip minus fees. That's exactly why our track record is built the other way around: verdicts are fixed with the price at the moment of publication and automatically re-verified - they cannot be deleted or rewritten.