Miner economics: when they sell and why it pressures the market

Miners receive nearly all of the new BTC emission - and carry costs in fiat: electricity, hardware, rent, salaries, debt. That makes them the market's only structural seller: they must sell regardless of faith in the asset.

Unit economics

A miner's income = the block reward + fees, divided by their share of the hashrate. The cost is mostly electricity: efficient operations mine BTC at a multiple below obsolete ones. After a halving, profitability is cut in half overnight - and Darwinism kicks in: the inefficient switch off (difficulty falls), the survivors take their share.

When the selling intensifies

• After the halving: the same fiat budget, half the coins - they sell a larger share of production.
• In price drawdowns: margins compressed, bills unchanged - selling from reserves. Miner reserves and their exchange outflows are a public on-chain metric.
• Capex peaks: orders for new hardware are paid for by selling inventory.
• Debt stress: leveraged public miners sell into margin calls - past cycles' bankruptcy stories bear witness.

Tracking is simple: the balances of known miner wallets and their transfers to exchanges. Sustained outflow is a headwind for price; accumulation - the miners are fed and waiting for higher.